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"Judgment Day" has to recalculated...to Oct. 21
#11
ibofightback Wrote:there were more than 25 million environmental refugees in 2010 alone. The prediction came true.
.



The United Nations does not believe that. And the doomsday "scientist" cannot even prove it to be true.

04/18/2011

Feared Migration Hasn't Happened
UN Embarrassed by Forecast on Climate Refugees

By Axel Bojanowski

Six years ago, the United Nations issued a dramatic warning that the world would have to cope with 50 million climate refugees by 2010. But now that those migration flows have failed to materialize, the UN has distanced itself from the forecasts. On the contrary, populations are growing in the regions that had been identified as environmental danger zones....


http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...13,00.html

The doomsday predictor told the New Scientist:

Myers: “It may be very difficult to demonstrate that there are 50 million climate refugees, but it is even harder to demonstrate that there are not.” He sees no reason to change his estimate." (translation- "I can't prove my prediction came true but you can't prove it to be false. So THERE!")

This is not the first time he has made controversial predictions that never came true.

In 1979, the biologist Norman Myers declared that a fifth of all species on the planet would be gone within two decades. This prediction was based upon . . . absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Myers acknowledged that the documented species extinction rate of animals was 1 per year; he then asserted that scientists had “hazarded a guess” that the actual rate was 100 per year; he then speculated that government inaction was “likely to lead” to several thousand or even tens of thousands a year, which would add up to as much as a million species over two decades.

When that failed to come true, do you think that stopped him? No. Just like Harold Camping, he is back with a new prediction that HALF of the species will be extinct within this generation.

Like I said, the doomsdayers on the right are very similar to the doomsayers on the left.
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#12
So first of all, let me get this straight. You are equating a prediction that over a 15yr period 0.02%/yr of the world's population will be "environmental refugees" with a prediction for the end of the world?

Really?

OK ... so let's look at this "doomsday" prediction of 0.02%/yr of the world's population being environmental refugees.

It was 25 million environmental refugees over 15 years.

Here's 10 million pakistani environmental refugees
Here's another 15 milion Chinese environmental refugees

That's from just two events in one year!

Can it be proved? No, you can only do estimates. I note the Der Spiegel article claims "A UNEP web page showed a map of regions where people were likely to be displaced by the ravages of global warming". This is completely false. Neither the UNEP page, nor Myers paper, said these were because of global warming, they identified many contributing factors, including for example deforestation.

Read the paper yourself instead of relying on third party sources with their own biases. I notice the New Scientist article you quote is subscription only. Would I be correct in suspecting you haven't read it either, to put Myers quote in context?
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#13
1- Definition of DOOMSDAY (merriam-webster.com)
1: a day of final judgment
2: a time of catastrophic destruction and death


World flooding, 50 million people displaced, islands that become completely submersed... but not a catastrophe? Really?

Are you not aware of how the word is defined? Or are you just being argumentative for the sake of argumentation?

2- This is not about global warming? Really???
You say this: "Neither the UNEP page, nor Myers paper, said these were because of global warming, they identified many contributing factors, including for example deforestation"

This quote is from Myers paper which was the source for the map:

The Nutty Professor:
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES:
AN EMERGENT SECURITY ISSUE*
"When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding."


http://www.osce.org/eea/14851


3- The map from the doomsday prediction specifically illustrates "Areas where the population are particularly vulnerable to higher sea levels and floods" and stated that some islands "will disappear completely." Please show us where those islands that have disappeared completely. Please show us where exactly that rising sea levels caused all the re

4- If the prediction was true, as you claim, why isn't the UN or the scientist taking credit for it? Why isn't he? This guy has a history of making wild and unproven doomsday predictions. Ten percent of the species will be extinct by the year 1999!!!!! Are you going to try and claim that that one happened as well? What is amazing is that people like you still believe him, just like the die hard followers of Harold Camping.
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#14
Deb Wrote:Back to the OP - maybe the Preacher man had the "mode" wrong - instead of the earth ending by earthquake - it appears we're going to be nibbled to death by tornadoes :bye: Confusedhock:

This is too interesting not to comment on.... :grin:

My gfriend has a "conspiracy theory" regarding the recent tornadoes.

She's a huge "storm chaser" freak, :grin: :grin: Smile Smile and she was telling me this morning that a few months back, Texas was concerned about their lack of moisture. Her theory is that the military initially "seeded" the clouds, but little changed. She believes the planes that do the cloud seeding decided to "reseed" the clouds again, but on the next round, the planes flew higher and (likely) "over seeded" them. The chemicals got caught in the jet coming down from Canada, and consequently the usA is getting lots of storms, (including tornadoes,) and in areas of the country that don't normally get them.

Unfortunately I dont know enough about meteorology or cloud seeding to pose an intelligent / factual debate with her, nor do I feel like researching it online. lol
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#15
MichMan Wrote:1- Definition of DOOMSDAY (merriam-webster.com)
1: a day of final judgment
2: a time of catastrophic destruction and death


World flooding, 50 million people displaced, islands that become completely submersed... but not a catastrophe? Really?


So basically your saying that doomsday happens pretty much every year, multiple times, since "catastrophic destruction and death" occur every year, multiple times?

Are you not aware of how the word is defined? Or are you just being argumentative for the sake of argumentation?

2- This is not about global warming? Really???
You say this: "Neither the UNEP page, nor Myers paper, said these were because of global warming, they identified many contributing factors, including for example deforestation"

This quote is from Myers paper which was the source for the map:

Quote:"When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration, and by sea-level rise and coastal flooding."

That was the only mention of global warming in the paper, and *it's with regard a different prediction altogether*. Which one are you trying to argue about? Oh - *and the Myers paper was NOT the source for the map*.
[/color]

Quote:3- The map from the doomsday prediction specifically illustrates "Areas where the population are particularly vulnerable to higher sea levels and floods" and stated that some islands "will disappear completely." Please show us where those islands that have disappeared completely. Please show us where exactly that rising sea levels caused all the re

Please show us where it said that would happen by 2010. Even though it's irrelevant, here's one case

Quote:4- If the prediction was true, as you claim, why isn't the UN or the scientist taking credit for it? Why isn't he? This guy has a history of making wild and unproven doomsday predictions. Ten percent of the species will be extinct by the year 1999!!!!! Are you going to try and claim that that one happened as well? What is amazing is that people like you still believe him, just like the die hard followers of Harold Camping.

Given how massively your sources are misquoting him on the "2010" prediction, I have little faith that your being accurate about anything else he said and have no particular urge to dig it up. People get stuff wrong all the time. Whoopee doo dah. Either way I don't have to "believe him" about anything. What is amazing is that people like you refuse to believe things that have already happened! I've given you two recent established examples of environmental refugees, and you just keep ignoring them!
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#16
Multimillionaire Wrote:Unfortunately I dont know enough about meteorology or cloud seeding to pose an intelligent / factual debate with her...


No need!

Just ask her to regularly pass-on her supporting knowledge and sources, and post it here.

I finished Greg Bear's "Eon" for like the 20th time, and I was hoping some more great fiction would come along. Wink

Seriously, though...she's wrong.

It's our benevolent alien caretakers who control the weather.

Everyone knows good seed spreaders use a disk-shaped device to "sling" seed, and with most UFO sightings being of a spinning saucer-nature, anyone who thinks they aren't spreading seed is not thinking at all.

Sheesh.
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#17
ibofightback Wrote:That was the only mention of global warming in the paper, and *it's with regard a different prediction altogether*. Which one are you trying to argue about? Oh - *and the Myers paper was NOT the source for the map*.



1- His work is not the source of the map? Did you see this stamped on the bottom of it?

Sources: Norman Meyers ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES: AN EMERGENT SECURITY ISSUE 13th Economic Forum,Prague, 23-27 May 2005

2- The 2010 prediction is included in his paper here: http://www.climate.org/PDF/Environmental%20Exodus.pdf

3- There is no doubt that there are victims of catastrophic weather. There always have been since the beginning of time. I question his claim that there are "several if not many times" more victims because of global warming. http://www.jstor.org/pss/1312319

4- The guy has a long history of making things up. His problem here is the the UN hyped one of his claims and even added a map to help illustrate them. BTW, if it was so easy for him to make all the detailed and complex calculations to predict those refugees decades in advance, why wouldn't it be much easier for him to count them after the fact to prove himself correct? Confusedcratch:
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#18
Wearyeyed Wrote:It's our benevolent alien caretakers who control the weather.


Actually it's perhaps even far more fascinating and amazing than that ....
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#19
MichMan, I'm not going to bother discussing it with you any more. You (a) haven't bothered to read the actual paper (b) continue to ignore actual factual reality that was well covered in recent press.
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#20
Sounds good to me. And if Myers or the UN ever do attempt defend their 2010 predictions, let me know.

By the way, his next set of Doomsday predictions are set to occur in 2025. So don't forget to stock up on food.
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